Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.7%
Secondary
Market
48.1%
Ordo
44.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.8%
Result
Market
48.1%
Ordo
44.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.8%
Settled
Women Mexican Premier · 2026-08-02 11:10
· Ordo
Tijuana Women vs Monterrey WomenTijuana Women vs Monterrey Women
Predicted1-2
Actual1-2
Core configuration [2.5] large, second choice is Ke Shen, model budget 1-2
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryAway✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactical Style and Tournament Characteristics
In this Mexican Women's Super League, Di Juana Women hosted Monterrey Women. As a traditional powerhouse in the league, Monterrey Women's team boasts high offensive efficiency and multi-pronged scoring ability; Di Juana Women's team has a relatively aggressive home playing style, but when defending against top teams, they tend to expose their space.
Market Pricing and Premium Evaluation
The market is offering an away win of 1.82 (with an implied probability of about 48.1% after clearing), a home win at 3.35, and a draw at 3.40. Although the away side has the advantage, their implied win rate of 48.1% falls within the gray zone of 42%–52%. asset allocation solely on home/away and direction risks a draw and a split. In contrast, the baseline for goals under is set at 2.5 goals, and the high zone (over 2.5 goals) is priced at 1.70 (implied probability of about 55.8%), indicating the market has clear expectations for the attacking landscape between the two teams.
Tactical Deduction and Deployment Logic
Considering that De Juana Women's team has some scoring ability at home and Monterrey Women's steady offense away from home, both teams have a higher chance of breaking through each other's defenses. Assuming the win direction is in the gray zone, [2.5] Big ** is listed as the core asset with the highest confidence (self-rated probability 58%), with the secondary option paired with Monterrey Women's ** away win to capture the general direction dividend brought by the strength difference. The estimated score is 1:2.
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