Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.2%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
53.9%
Ordo
46.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.1%
Settled
Austrian Bundesliga · 2026-08-03 01:00
· Ordo
Rapid Vienna vs Rheindorf AltachRapid Vienna vs Rheindorf Altach
Predicted1-0
Actual1-0
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this Austrian Bundesliga match, Vienna Swift hosted Edach. Looking at the market's implied pricing and win rate distribution, the home win rate translates to about 52.5%, which is a typical 'gray zone balance' range.
Tactical and Goal Structure Analysis: Although Vienna Rapid has possession advantage at home, Adazi often employs low defensive and counter-attack strategies away from home. The tightened defensive line significantly reduces the home team's scoring space inside the penalty area. The market baseline for under is set at 2.5 goals, with the low (under) priced at 1.82, significantly lower than the high (over) at 1.88, reflecting institutional caution against low-score results.
* Correct Score and Market Bias: The top three most popular correct scores in the market are 1:0(6.1), 1:1(6.4), and 2:1(7.0), with both having low score results. When the home win win rate is below the absolute control line of 55%, asset allocation on a direct home win carries significant risk of a draw defense (draw implied probability 26.0%).
Allocation Strategy: Given the high pitch distribution of offense and defense and market correct score distribution toward small balls, [2.5] Small is the core asset with the highest win probability certainty; Paired with Home[0] (Asian Handicap Draw) as the secondary defense, it perfectly prevents 1:1 draws from flowing water.
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