Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+10.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
84.7%
Ordo
69.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-15.2%
Settled
Women Mexican Premier · 2026-08-03 07:06
· Ordo
Guadalajara Women vs Queretaro WomenGuadalajara Women vs Queretaro Women
Predicted3-0
Actual3-1
Core configuration [3.5] is narrow, secondary pick is home [-2.5] through the chart, predicted score 3:0.
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryHome[-2.5]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
✗
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Lineup Composition:
As a traditional powerhouse in the Mexican Women's Super League, Chivas Femenil hosted Querétaro Women's Football at home in this match. Guadalajara Women's Football Team excels at high pressing and wing passing and cutting at home, showing remarkable control of the game; Querétaro Women are expected to adopt a 5-4-1 low-post defensive formation away from home, with the tactical core being to drop in the center to reduce the risk of conceding goals.
Market Pricing and Wave Prediction Codes:
Institutions have set an extremely low home win market pricing of 1.05 (implied win rate of 84.7%), showcasing overwhelming one-sided strength. However, the handicap home/away draw [-3] and under/under baseline are set at [3.5] goals, and the correct score market implies the top three are 3:0(5.5), 2:0(5.9), and 1:0(9.25), indicating a strong market consensus on the home team's clean sheet, but caution toward overwhelming scorelines over 4 goals. If Guadalajara Women build a 2-goal lead in the first half, they are likely to take control and rotate the ball in the second half, further narrowing down the narrow-ball zone.
Optimal Configuration Logic:
Pure home win market pricing have no executable value, while correct score probability distribution is highly concentrated within 3 goals. [3.5] Fine (Under 3.5) features an extremely high win rate and margin of safety, making it the most stable core asset; The secondary pick pairs with Asian Handicap Home [-2.5], balancing winning efficiency.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.