Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.4%
Secondary
Market
57.2%
Ordo
49.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.3%
Result
Market
57.2%
Ordo
49.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.3%
Settled
English League Cup · 2026-08-04 02:30
· Ordo
York City F.C. vs MFK KarvináYork City F.C. vs MFK Karviná
Predicted2-1
Actual0-2
Core configuration is [2.5], with a home win as the secondary pick, which is strongly supported by the market
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
**1. Tactics and Squad Updates (2026-27 Season): Last season, York City won the National League with over 100 points (108 points) and a powerful 114 goals, earning promotion to League Two. Although this match is the EFL Cup preliminary and both sides are expected to rotate their lineups, Yorktown remains strong at home thanks to last season's top scorer Ollie Pearce and new signings. Rival Crawley Town narrowly avoided relegation last season with a 1-point margin, and this season they are led by new coach Colin Kazim-Richards. Their defense has been inconsistent in preseason friendlies.
2. asset allocation and Market Pricing Analysis: Market pricing for this match is extremely biased against newly promoted York City (home win priced at 1.54, with an implied win rate of about 57.2% after margin reduction). Although Carvini has the upper hand in their past encounters (1 win and 3 draws in their last 4 matches), market data reflects a serious skepticism about the visiting team's recent defensive line and away performance. Meanwhile, the market pricing for Under [2.5] goals are as low as 1.66, clearly indicating a clear intention to avoid high-scoring outcomes.
3. Result Analysis: Considering the defensive lack of coordination caused by cup rotation and York City's strong home attack from last season, this match is expected to be an open attacking battle. With the home team making a deeper concession, the core asset locked in is [2.5], and the secondary option follows the absolute market trend to build a home win.
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