Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.2%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
27.3%
Ordo
32.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.1%
Settled
Women Brazilian Division 1 · 2026-08-04 05:30
· Ordo
Flamengo Women vs Corinthians WomenFlamengo Women vs Corinthians Women
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Points Situation (Latest Updates):
According to the latest information as of August 3, 2026, Corinthians women currently sit second in the league with 31 points, just 1 point behind the temporarily topped São Paulo. A draw or win in this match will help them reclaim the top spot. On the other hand, Flamengo Women are at a critical stage competing for a playoff spot (top eight in the league), and playing at home shows a strong desire to win points. Both sides are driven by strong goals, and the match is expected to be filled with intense physical battles and midfield skirmishes.
Injuries and Roster Concerns:
Corinthians Women's squad for this match was not complete. Key forward Jaqueline is suspended after receiving a red card in the last match against Mixto, and goalkeepers Lelê and Rillary are both sidelined due to injury. Although key players like Andressa Alves and Duda Sampaio are expected to return after the rest period, playing away and changing the back line will undoubtedly reduce the team's offensive pressure, prompting a more cautious tactical approach.
Market Pricing and market pricing Deduction:
The market offers market pricing of 1.85 for an away win (implied probability about 47.3%), placing them in the gray zone of 42%–52%, indicating that in the face of Flamengo's strong playoff ambition, the institutions' confidence in Corinthians taking all three points is limited. Combined with the low-end defense pricing below the 2.5-goal baseline (1.82) and the preferred 1:1 correct score arrangement, the match tends to be tightly contested and dull. With insufficient certainty in direction, the low total number of goals was the defensive asset with the highest confidence in this match.
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