Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+17.0%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
54.9%
Certus
52.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.9%
Settled
Club Matches · 2026-08-08 21:30
· Certus
Leverkusen vs SevillaLeverkusen vs Sevilla
Predicted3-1
Actual2-1
核心配置 [3.5] 大,次選讓球 主[-0.5/-1]
Primary[3.5] Over✗SecondaryHome[-0.5/-1]✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth combat power assessment and market analysis
1. Fundamentals and combat power dynamics (2026 latest situation)
This game is a club friendly match on August 8, 2026. According to the latest search data, Leverkusen showed amazing offensive firepower in this summer's warm-up matches. Recently, he has successively won 7-0, 4-0 and 3-0 against his opponents. The overall tactical operation is smooth, and the frontcourt pressure has not diminished at all due to the offseason. The visiting team Seaver is also preparing for the pre-season. Although it has certain counterattack capabilities, the overall defense is expected to face a great test when facing the high-pressure play of the Bundesliga championship level. Since it is a warm-up match, both sides will inevitably have a larger lineup rotation, which will further increase the openness of the game and the probability of scoring goals.
2. Market pricing and handicap structure errors
The market's implied probability of winning 1.6 is about 54.9% (after removing the margin). For the warm-up match, this pricing reflects the institution's high vigilance against Leverkusen's status. In terms of goal size, the baseline is as high as 3.5 goals, and the high zone is priced at 2.05, showing that the market is highly vigilant about a big score in the attack between the two sides. Considering that Leverkusen has recently averaged more than 3 goals per game, this high-line handicap still has considerable gaming value.
3. Result prediction and configuration logic
Based on the playing styles of both sides, it is expected that this game will be a fast-paced open game. Due to the high risk of fluctuations in the outcome of the warm-up match, and the handicap does not provide a defensive line for ties, the profit-loss ratio of directly winning the main victory is relatively limited. Therefore, the core configuration is locked on "[3.5] Big" with the highest self-assessed hit rate; the second option is to configure handicap main [-0.5/-1] to deal with the situation where Leverkusen beats the opponent in regular time with his strong firepower.
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