Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+15.5%
Secondary
Market
61.1%
Certus
53.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.7%
Result
Market
61.1%
Certus
53.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.7%
Settled
Club Matches · 2026-08-13 03:00
· Certus
Deportivo vs Real MadridDeportivo vs Real Madrid
Predicted1-3
Actual0-1
Core configuration [3.5] Large, second choice handicap home and away and away [-1]
Primary[3.5] Over✗SecondaryGuest[-1]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is the traditional warm-up match "Teresa Ribera Cup". Deportivo La Coruna, who have been promoted to La Liga in the new season, will face Real Madrid at the Riazor Stadium at home.
Team’s current situation and fighting spirit: The 2026/27 La Liga season has not yet officially started, and neither side currently has league points. As a warm-up match, Deportivo La Coruna has a high willingness to perform and attack at home; Real Madrid's five World Cup internationals (including Kylian Mbappe) only returned to the team for training on August 10. The playing time in this game is doubtful, and they are expected to undergo substantial rotation.
Market Pricing Bias: The market offers a customer win of 1.44 (implied probability of about 61.1%), and concessions are relatively restrained for a matchup with a huge disparity in strength. Handicap home and away and open away [-1] 2.20, showing that the market has reservations about Real Madrid's victory over the set. Considering the nature of the warm-up match and the lack of tacit understanding among the defense lines, the probability of the two sides attacking and defending each other is extremely high.
Handicap Configuration Strategy: There is no Asian handicap in this game, and there are no tie defensive assets available. According to the system red line principle, the cup/warm-up high line [3.5] is strictly prohibited from being used as a "thin" center of gravity configuration. According to the comprehensive deduction, the total number of goals is expected to reach 4 goals, so the first choice is [3.5] as the core asset; the second choice is handicap home and away and away [-1], and it is optimistic that Real Madrid will win with a two-goal gap due to its depth advantage.
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