Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+12.4%
Secondary
Market
20.5%
Certus
26.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.6%
Result
Market
56.6%
Certus
48.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.1%
Settled
Dutch Division 2 · 2026-08-15 02:00
· Certus
Almere City vs Jong PSV EindhovenAlmere City vs Jong PSV Eindhoven
Predicted2-1
Actual3-1
Core configuration [3.5] fine, second choice handicap home and away and [-1] single goal small win
Primary[3.5] Under✗Secondaryand[-1]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Current Situation (2026-27 Season)
Amel City played a 1-1 away game against Danbosch in the first round of the Dutch Second Division in the 2026-27 season. Forward Ferdy Druijf quickly opened his goal account, showing the team's fulcrum threat in positional battles, and the overall defense maintained its due discipline. The visiting team Yanhaofen's youth team narrowly defeated Heningdan 3-2 in the first round. Young players such as Fabio Kluit and Joël van den Berg performed actively, continuing the youth team's tradition of "focusing on offense and neglecting defense"; however, the long-term injury of the core defense Wessel Kuhn (expected to be absent until March 2027) will continue to expose the lack of stability of the defense.
Market Pricing Bias Assessment
The initial market pricing of this game gives strong support to the main win of 1.56 (implied probability of about 56.6%). At the same time, the goal baseline is opened to 3.5 goals (flood 1.76), which shows that the organization is highly vigilant against the youth team's open play style. However, Amer City prefers to control the rhythm at home rather than blindly attack. Considering the defensive resilience shown by the home team in the first round, the unilaterally raised 3.5-goal boundary has some room for temptation. In the absence of an Asian handicap (tie/shallow handicap) in this game, the [3.5] fine handicap of 1.94 has extremely high defensive and investment value. It is expected that the home team can suppress the opponent with its experience advantage, but the goal difference is difficult to increase. 2-1 is a reasonable result. Therefore, the second choice can use the "tie[-1]" of the HAD handicap to accurately capture the high market pricing of a small victory by one goal.
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