Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.0%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
42.4%
Certus
40.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.3%
Settled
French Division 2 · 2026-08-15 02:45
· Certus
Dijon vs Pau FCDijon vs Pau FC
Predicted1-0
Actual0-1
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice half-time home and away tie, draw
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryDraw✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In the second round of Ligue 2, Dean will face Pau FC at home. According to the latest 2026-27 season data retrieved from the Internet, Dean drew 1-1 with Montpellier in the first round of the league as a guest. He scored a thrilling point with a goal in stoppage time, showing a certain degree of pressure resistance and resilience. On the other hand, Pau FC lost 0-1 to Annecy at home in the first round. What was even more fatal was that despite the absolute numerical advantage of their opponent who was sent off one man in just 15 minutes, the 75-minute offensive was still unable to score a goal, which exposed the weakness of the extremely weak offensive end and lack of ability to break dense defense.
Judging from the market's implicit pricing, the home team Dean's winning rate is expected to be 42.4%, which does not form an absolute directional suppression, and the risk of a draw (29.6%) cannot be ignored. Since the Jockey Club has not issued a handicap (Asian Handicap) tie handicap in this game, we cannot use the conventional "Home[0]" or "Away[0]" defensive strategy. With both teams showing low scores in the first round and Pau's ability to break the game extremely low, there is a high probability that this game will fall into a boring half-time tug-of-war. [2.5] The ball's goal baseline provides us with sufficient room for error. It is expected that the two sides will find it difficult to play a smooth attack.
Combined with the decision tree model, when there is insufficient confidence in the winning direction (<45%) and the lack of Asian Handicap protection, the core configuration of this game should avoid home and away ties and lock in the goal line with the highest expected hit rate. The second option can configure a half-time tie to deal with possible half-time tie patterns.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.