Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+13.9%
Secondary
Market
21.5%
Certus
31.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+9.5%
Result
Market
65.7%
Certus
48.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-17.2%
Settled
Italian Cup · 2026-08-15 00:30
· Certus
Cagliari vs ArezzoCagliari vs Arezzo
Predicted1-0
Actual1-0
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap home and away and [-1]
Primary[2.5] Under✓Secondaryand[-1]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is the first round of the Italian Cup in the 2026-27 season. The Serie A team Cagliari will face the low-level opponent Aresu at home.
[Status and fighting spirit] According to the latest competition and team dynamics in August 2026, Cagliari is preparing for the new Serie A season. This game is their first official game of the season (the league has not yet started and the points are 0). The team had a 0-0 draw with Nice and a 2-2 draw with Union Berlin in recent pre-season warm-up matches. The team's offensive status and lineup adjustment are still being adjusted. In addition, the team was also disturbed by Sebastiano Esposito's transfer turmoil off the court. On the other hand, the visiting team Areso had already defeated Union Brescia 2-0 in the Coppa Italia qualifiers on August 10 (Arena and Tavernelli contributed). The players entered the rhythm of actual combat early, and they have advantages in physical fitness and condition.
[Market Pricing Bias] The system market opened the main win 1.34 (implied probability as high as 65.7%). Although there is a cross-level strength gap between the two sides, when the home team lacks a formal game rhythm and may adopt rotation, and the visiting team has the support of actual combat status, the home team's winning market pricing are seriously low. In addition, the market does not provide Asian handicap (such as the defensive option of the main [-1] handicap). If you forcefully choose to win or handicap, you will face higher risks.
[Tactical Deduction and Configuration] It is expected that Aresu will use the established game state to adopt intensive defense. Cagliari showed mediocre game-breaking ability in the warm-up match, and the first half is very likely to be a tug-of-war. The total number of goals in this game is expected to be low, and Cagliari can only win by a small margin (such as 1-0). In the list of available market pricing, the first choice for the core configuration is "goal size [2.5] fine" with a self-rated probability of 62%; the second choice is to use "handicap home and away and draw [-1]" to accurately attack the high market pricing scenario where the home team just wins by one goal.
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