Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.5%
Secondary
Market
29.7%
Certus
31.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.3%
Result
Market
40.1%
Certus
38.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.1%
Settled
Japanese Division 2 · 2026-08-15 18:00
· Certus
Ventforet Kofu vs Tegevajaro MiyazakiVentforet Kofu vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Predicted0-1
Actual1-1
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap home and away and [+1]
Primary[2.5] Under✓Secondaryand[+1]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is the second round of the Japan Second Division League (J2) in the 2026-27 season. After the first round of baptism, Kofu Fenglin and Miyazaki Houtori both faced a bad start and neither scored a goal (Kofu lost to Tosu 0-2 away, Miyazaki lost 0-1). The two teams are currently ranked in the middle and lower reaches of the league, and their offensive status needs to be adjusted.
Injury and lineup impact
After retrieving the latest information for 2026, Kofu Fuulin's defense has suffered a major blow. Main backbone Keita Fukui is expected to be sidelined until 2027 due to knee surgery. As for the Miyazaki Cowbirds, main forward Keigo Hashimoto is also absent due to a tibial fracture. Both sides are missing core players in the front and back of the game, which further amplifies the possibility of a deadlock and a low number of goals in this game.
Market Pricing and Handicap Deduction
The latest market implied probability shows that the visiting team Miyazaki (40.1%) is slightly ahead of the home team Kofu (30.1%) and the draw (29.7%). However, the direction confidence (max_dir < 45%) is in the gray area, and the risk of a tie is close to 30%. The risk of forcing a single winning direction is extremely high. In the absence of Asian handicap (asian_handicap) tie handicap as an undefeated defensive asset, the high and low distinction of 2.5 goals is extremely obvious (the water is as low as 1.5), and the market is also highly guarded against boredom. Therefore, the core configuration must lock in the thin line of goal size; considering that Miyazaki defeated Kofu 2-1 in the June 2026 clash and has a certain psychological advantage, the second choice is recommended to use the handicap home and away draw (HAD) "Tie [+1]" to accurately capture the high-market pricing result of the visiting team winning only one goal.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.