Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+9.4%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
28.9%
Certus
32.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.5%
Settled
Korean Division 1 · 2026-08-15 18:30
· Certus
Jeju SK vs FC AnyangJeju SK vs FC Anyang
Predicted1-1
Actual2-0
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap away [0/+0.5]
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryGuest[0/+0.5]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is the 23rd round of the South Korean Professional League (K League 1) in the 2026 season. Jeju SK is currently ranked fifth with 31 points, while FC Anyang, which has performed well after promotion, is closely followed by FC Anyang, ranked sixth with 30 points. The difference between the two sides is only 1 point, which is a key ranking battle.
Tactics and lineup dynamics:
Jeju SK has shown good resilience recently and was trained in the recent warm-up match with Bayern Munich. The team's overall formation remains compact. As for FC Anyang, although they defeated Jeju SK 2-1 in the first two games this season and have a clear psychological advantage in the game, the team has recently suffered a losing streak in the league (lost to Ulsan Hyundai and Daejeon Citizen), and the lineup has been troubled by certain injuries, including captain Lee Chang-yong and other main players who have been absent due to injuries, and their physical fitness and bench depth are facing tests.
Market Implied Pricing and Strategy:
The latest market pricing gives 2.07 for home win (implied probability of about 42.6%), 3.05 for draw, and 3.1 for away win. Under the background that FC Anyang has the advantage of winning consecutive games, the popularity of the home victory has not been overly promoted, reflecting the market's limited confidence in the direction of the home team. At the same time, the low-zone pricing of the goal size [2.5] dropped to 1.66, showing a high degree of caution against both sides fighting conservatively and finishing the game with a low score. Since the steering wheel is in a gray area where the probability of winning or losing is less than 45%, it is not appropriate to try to win or lose in this game. Considering that both sides have close points and a clear defensive-priority tactical tone, the core configuration recommendation is [2.5]. For the second choice, FC Anyang can be considered to be transferred and use its advantages in battle to win an undefeated victory.
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