Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.2%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
54.1%
Certus
54.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.2%
Settled
English League 1 · 2026-08-15 22:00
· Certus
Bradford vs PeterboroughBradford vs Peterborough
Predicted2-0
Actual2-0
The core configuration is the main winner, and the second choice is Bradford Main [1.5] Big
PrimaryHome✓Secondarymain [1.5] big—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This match is the first round of the 2026/27 English League One. Through the latest data retrieval and fundamental analysis, the home team Bradford City performed strongly last season and successfully entered the promotion play-offs. During the offseason, the team continued to be led by team leader Graham Alexander, and introduced powerful new players such as Callum Connolly. The overall strength and lineup depth have steadily improved, showing a clear intention to win the championship.
On the contrary, the visiting team Peterborough United went through a difficult relegation battle last season. Although they managed to secure a spot in League One under the leadership of Luke Williams, they unfortunately lost many of their key players such as Archie Collins this summer. Their midfield control and defensive stability are facing a great test, and the lineup is still in a period of turmoil and reconstruction.
The market's implicit pricing is 54.1% (1.63 market pricing) for the main win. Combined with the fundamentals of both sides, this pricing does not fully reflect the significant gap in lineup stability and morale between the two teams. Bradford enjoys the advantage of home court and has a mature tactical system. Facing the unbalanced offense and defense of Peterborough, the home team has a high chance of controlling the rhythm of the game. In terms of handicap strategy, since there is no tie handicap (Asian handicap) defensive handicap in the list, but with the support of sufficient confidence in the main winning direction (the model estimates a hitting rate of 58%), the core configuration locks in the "main winning". In addition, taking into account Bradford's offensive pressure, the secondary goal of his single team is "Main [1.5] Big". This can not only perfectly correspond to the predicted score of 2-0, but also cover a variety of positive win situations such as 2-1, creating a three-dimensional configuration that is both offensive and defensive.
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