Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.0%
Secondary
Market
53.2%
Certus
47.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.1%
Result
Market
53.2%
Certus
47.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.1%
Settled
Dutch Division 1 · 2026-08-16 03:00
· Certus
Fortuna Sittard vs CambuurFortuna Sittard vs Cambuur
Predicted2-1
Actual3-1
The core configuration [2.5] is large, the second choice wins, and the model estimates 2:1.
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
For the Eredivisie League (event date: 2026-08-16 03:00, Jockey Club number: FB2882) Lucky Sheda plays against Gamble at home, the on-the-spot data and tactical structure evaluation of this game are:
**1. Analysis of market implicit pricing and winning rate: **
Host and guest and pricing: Lucky Xueda home win 1.66, draw 3.80, Gambol away win 3.75. After removing the margin, the implied winning rate is Home win 53.2% | Draw 23.2% | Away win 23.6%. The market gives Lucky Xueda solid home support.
Handicap: The Asian handicap is home handicap half/one (Home [-0.5/-1] 1.96), showing that the home team has a slight lead, but it has not reached a deep plate crushing pattern.
2. Analysis of total goals and offensive and defensive styles:
Low discount pricing for large and small balls: The price of the large ball with a 2.5-ball line in this game is only 1.49, and the implied probability of a large ball is over 63%. The Eredivisie league has always been open in style. The two teams have a fast pace of offensive and defensive transitions at the beginning of the season. Omissions are prone to occur during the defensive run-in period, and they have a strong foundation for big ball trends.
Bolo Popularity: The top three most popular waves are 2:1 (6.9), 1:1 (7.5), 1:0 (9.0), which reflects that both teams have a higher chance of scoring, and the home team has the most mainstream pattern of a small victory or a draw with a big goal.
3. Comprehensive configuration thinking:
Since the steering wheel's main win of 1.66 is on the edge of the gray zone (53.2%), and Gumball has a certain counterattack threat, [2.5] Big has better market consensus and confidence, so it is suitable to be listed as the core configuration, and the main win as a secondary choice.
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