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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Primary

Market 58.9%

Certus 62.0%

+3.1%

Secondary

Market 30.2%

Certus 31.0%

+0.8%

Result

Market 31.1%

Certus 32.4%

+1.3%

Settled

Russian Premier · 2026-08-16 22:00 · Certus

Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Dynamo Makhachkala Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Dynamo Makhachkala

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1-4

Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap home and away and away [+1]

Primary [2.5] Under Secondary Guest[+1] Result Draw Goals O/U [2.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

2.28

Market implied 43.9%

Draw

2.84

Market implied 35.2%

Away win

2.92

Market implied 34.2%

半場主客和

Home win

3.05

Market implied 32.8%

Draw

1.81

Market implied 55.2%

Away win

3.8

Market implied 26.3%

半場入球大細

[1/1.5]

Over

2.75

Market implied 36.4%

Under

1.38

Market implied 72.5%

[1.5]

Over

3.25

Market implied 30.8%

Under

1.28

Market implied 78.1%

[1.5/2]

Over

4.05

Market implied 24.7%

Under

1.18

Market implied 84.7%

入球大細

[2/2.5]

Over

1.95

Market implied 51.3%

Under

1.75

Market implied 57.1%

[2.5]

Over

2.25

Market implied 44.4%

Under

1.57

Market implied 63.7%

[3.5]

Over

3.7

Market implied 27.0%

Under

1.22

Market implied 82.0%

球隊入球大細

主 [1.5] 大

2.6

Market implied 38.5%

主 [1.5] 細

1.43

Market implied 69.9%

主 [2.5] 大

5.9

Market implied 16.9%

主 [2.5] 細

1.08

Market implied 92.6%

客 [1.5] 大

3.05

Market implied 32.8%

客 [1.5] 細

1.32

Market implied 75.8%

客 [2.5] 大

6.6

Market implied 15.2%

客 [2.5] 細

1.06

Market implied 94.3%

球隊半場入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

2.2

Market implied 45.5%

主 [0.5] 細

1.59

Market implied 62.9%

主 [1.5] 大

6.25

Market implied 16.0%

主 [1.5] 細

1.07

Market implied 93.5%

客 [0.5] 大

2.48

Market implied 40.3%

客 [0.5] 細

1.47

Market implied 68.0%

客 [1.5] 大

7.0

Market implied 14.3%

客 [1.5] 細

1.05

Market implied 95.2%

讓球主客和

主[-1]

4.8

Market implied 20.8%

和[-1]

3.8

Market implied 26.3%

客[+1]

1.49

Market implied 67.1%

主[+1]

1.3

Market implied 76.9%

和[+1]

4.45

Market implied 22.5%

客[-1]

6.8

Market implied 14.7%

波膽

Home

1:0

6.2

2:0

10.0

2:1

8.25

3:0

22.0

3:1

21.0

3:2

30.0

4:0

50.0

4:1

40.0

4:2

70.0

5:0

150.0

5:1

150.0

5:2

250.0

Draw

0:0

6.7

1:1

5.4

2:2

13.5

3:3

60.0

Away

0:1

7.0

0:2

13.5

1:2

10.0

0:3

30.0

1:3

27.0

2:3

40.0

0:4

70.0

1:4

70.0

2:4

80.0

0:5

300.0

1:5

250.0

2:5

400.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

4.05

2:0

10.5

2:1

20.0

3:0

60.0

3:1

100.0

3:2

400.0

4:0

400.0

4:1

600.0

4:2

1500.0

5:0

1500.0

5:1

2000.0

5:2

5000.0

Draw

0:0

2.16

1:1

6.9

2:2

80.0

3:3

1000.0

Away

0:1

4.8

0:2

13.5

1:2

24.0

0:3

80.0

1:3

150.0

2:3

500.0

0:4

600.0

1:4

700.0

2:4

2000.0

0:5

2000.0

1:5

4000.0

2:5

5000.0

半全場

主-主

3.75

Market implied 26.7%

主-和

14.0

Market implied 7.1%

主-客

30.0

Market implied 3.3%

和-主

5.1

Market implied 19.6%

和-和

3.9

Market implied 25.6%

和-客

6.2

Market implied 16.1%

客-主

29.0

Market implied 3.4%

客-和

14.0

Market implied 7.1%

客-客

4.9

Market implied 20.4%

總入球

0球

6.7

Market implied 14.9%

1球

3.85

Market implied 26.0%

2球

3.15

Market implied 31.7%

3球

3.9

Market implied 25.6%

4球

5.9

Market implied 16.9%

5球

12.0

Market implied 8.3%

6球

29.0

Market implied 3.4%

7+球

40.0

Market implied 2.5%

入球單雙

單

1.92

Market implied 52.1%

雙

1.78

Market implied 56.2%

第一隊入球

主

1.87

Market implied 53.5%

無

6.7

Market implied 14.9%

客

2.18

Market implied 45.9%

Recent form

Krylya Sovetov Samara

L W D

Dynamo Makhachkala

L L W W

Other matches same day

Team dossier

Dynamo Makhachkala

馬哈奇卡拉戴拿模足球會是一家俄羅斯足球會，位於馬哈奇卡拉。球隊在2024–25年首次升上俄羅斯超級足球聯賽角逐。

马哈奇卡拉 · Dynamo Stadium · Founded 1927

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Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Certus %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

In-depth analysis

In the fourth round of the 2026-27 Russian Super League, Semara will face Dynamo Makhachkala at home. Judging from the current league situation, Semimara has had a bad start and currently only accumulates a few points and ranks 14th, and its status has fluctuated; while Dynamo Makhachkala has shown a strong competitive level and currently ranks 5th in the league. However, it is worth noting that the two sides had just met in the Russian Cup in early August. At that time, Semara defeated their opponent 2-1 as a guest, which retained the psychological advantage for the home team to win this game.

In terms of lineup information, Dynamo Makhachkala's main defender Idar Shumakhov continues to be absent due to a cruciate ligament injury, which poses certain risks to the stability of its defense. However, the market's pricing support for Semara, who plays at home, is limited (the implied probability of a home win is only about 38.7%), showing that institutions are not firm in their confidence in the home team's rebound. In the absence of absolute suppression by both teams, and the visiting team's strong tactical toughness, this game is likely to fall into a midfield battle. The price of goals per goal [2.5] was reduced to 1.57, further confirming the expectation of a low-goal defensive battle. Taken together, in a market environment with no handicap, the optimal solution is to avoid pure winning and losing and deploy defensive assets.

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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Dynamo Makhachkala Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Dynamo Makhachkala

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

半場入球大細

入球大細

球隊入球大細

球隊半場入球大細

讓球主客和

波膽

半場波膽

半全場

總入球

入球單雙

第一隊入球

Recent form

Team dossier