Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
46.7%
Certus
42.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.8%
Settled
Spanish Division 1 · 2026-08-17 01:00
· Certus
Espanyol vs LevanteEspanyol vs Levante
Predicted1-0
Actual3-0
The status of the first round of the new season is uncertain, the core configuration [2.5] is fine, the second choice is handicapped, the main [0/-0.5]
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryMain[0/-0.5]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
✗
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Fundamental Status:
This game is the first round of the 2026-27 La Liga season. Espanyol will face Levante at the RCDE Stadium. After the latest search (August 2026), both sides have entered the first match of the new season, and both sides currently have 0 points. Due to the lack of recent high-intensity formal game data, there is high uncertainty in the tactical adjustment and player status of both teams. Multiple cross-searches did not obtain the latest list of major injuries or lineup changes from both sides, so the evaluation of this game will highly rely on market on-the-spot pricing and data structure deduction.
Market Pricing Bias Assessment:
The current market price of the main win is 1.89, with an implied probability of about 46.7%, and the implied probability of a tie is as high as 28.5%. When the risk of a draw exceeds the 28% threshold and the probability of the main win is less than the 52% absolute certainty line, there is a high risk of traps in blindly pursuing the steering wheel. At the same time, the sub-area (Under) with a goal baseline of 2.5 goals only opened at a low price of 1.67, which shows that institutions are on guard against the conservative scenes of both sides in the first game, and the market is biased towards a dull battle pattern.
On-the-spot configuration suggestions:
Based on the above risks, the first choice for this market is defensive assets that are less affected by external variables [2.5] Fine. In terms of secondary selection, since there is no tie handicap ([0]) in this game's list, taking into account Espanyol's home field advantage, the Asian handicap with the shallowest handicap Main [0/-0.5] has a reasonable profit-loss ratio. It is expected that this will be a boring battle mainly based on testing, and the home team is expected to win a thrilling victory with a one-goal advantage.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.