Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.6%
Secondary
Market
55.0%
Certus
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.0%
Result
Market
53.4%
Certus
56.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.6%
Settled
Portuguese Premier · 2026-08-17 03:30
· Certus
Famalicao vs MaritimoFamalicao vs Maritimo
Predicted2-0
Actual1-2
The core configuration is the main win, and the second choice [2.5] is fine to prevent the risk of low goals at the beginning of the season.
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Under✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This match is the second round of the 2026-27 Portuguese Super League, with Famalicao playing against Maritimo at home. Through on-site Internet data retrieval, it was confirmed that Famalicao, under the leadership of coach Carlos Carvalhal, performed very competitively last season (2025/26) and finally finished fifth in the Portuguese Super League. In the first round of this season, they drew 1-1 away from Estoril. The new forward Georgios Koutsias quickly integrated into the team and scored a goal. The visiting team Maritimo won 1-0 in the first round and took all three points. They are currently ranked second in the standings, showing good defensive toughness.
From the perspective of market implicit pricing, the home win rate of 1.65 corresponds to a winning rate of approximately 53.4%. The handicap reasonably reflects the gap between the two teams in overall strength and ranking last season. At the beginning of the season, the lineups of both sides are still in the running-in period, and both teams scored low goals in the first round. At the tactical level, Famalicao has stronger midfield control and is expected to dominate the ball at home; while Maridimo may rely on intensive defense and wait for opportunities to counterattack. On the data surface, the low zone pricing (1.68) of the goal size [2.5] thin line reveals the prevention of defensive battles. After a comprehensive evaluation, Famalicao is expected to break the deadlock with his personal ability in the frontcourt and successfully win the first victory of the season with a score of 1-0 or 2-0.
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