Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.8%
Secondary
Market
60.7%
Certus
57.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.0%
Result
Market
60.7%
Certus
57.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.0%
Settled
Women US Football League · 2026-08-17 07:00
· Certus
North Carolina Courage Women vs Houston Dash WomenNorth Carolina Courage Women vs Houston Dash Women
Predicted2-0
Actual2-3
Core configuration [3.5] fine, second choice of home and guest and home win
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Fundamentals and injury information (latest data in 2026)
The North Carolina Courage women's soccer team is having a solid season, currently sitting in 6th place in the league with 30 points, and is fighting well at home. Although forward Payton Crawford and defender Sydney Schmidt were sidelined for the season due to cruciate ligament injuries, the team's system still operates smoothly. On the other hand, the visiting team Houston Charge Women's Football Team is currently ranked 12th with only 20 points, and is suffering from a serious "man shortage": according to the latest official roster, midfield pivots Sarah Puntigam, Emina Ekić and many others are absent due to personal leave. In addition, Sophie Schmidt has an ankle injury. The team's defensive thickness in the midfield and the ability to switch from defense to offense have suffered a devastating blow.
2. Tactics and market pricing bias
The market in this game gives a strong signal of 1.44 for the main win, with an implied probability of over 60%. Houston Charge has only scored 20 goals in the past 18 league games, and their offense is extremely weak. Facing the North Carolina Courage, which has control of the ball, the visiting team is likely to retreat across the board. It is worth noting that the agency gave a high-zone thin line of [3.5]. For a game where the away team is difficult to score, it obviously over-expects the home team's unilateral big score massacre, providing us with an extremely comfortable fault-tolerance space for us to choose "thin".
3. Result deduction and allocation strategy
All things considered, the North Carolina Courage will firmly control the tempo, and Houston's charge will hardly pose a threat. Since there is no Asian handicap (tie/shallow handicap) for defense in this game, and the home and away handicap and (HAD) no-go handicap mechanism has a certain risk of finger jamming, the highest certainty asset is locked at [3.5] fine. The predicted score is 2-0.
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