Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
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Secondary
Market
50.8%
Certus
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.2%
Result
Market
53.7%
Certus
50.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.8%
Settled
Dutch Division 2 · 2026-08-18 02:00
· Certus
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ AlkmaarDe Graafschap vs Jong AZ Alkmaar
Predicted3-1
Actual2-5
Core configuration: primary [-0.5/-1], second choice goal size [3.5] large
PrimaryMain[-0.5/-1]—Secondary[3.5] Over✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
**1. Battle situation and recent status (based on online evidence): **
This game is the second round of the Dutch Second Division in the 2026-27 season. According to the latest Internet search data, Degastrup drew 1-1 away from Helmondspor in the first round of the league and scored 1 point; while Alkmaar Youth Team (Jong AZ) lost 0-1 at home to FC Eindhoven in the first home game. Both teams were in a running-in period on the offensive end at the beginning of the season. However, in the Eredivisie B match between the two sides a few months ago (April 2026), Degasstrup defeated the Alkmaar Youth Team 5-0 at home, possessing an overwhelming psychological and home strength advantage.
2. Data and handicap pricing inference:
The Jockey Club opened at home at 1.64 (implied probability of about 53.7%), while the Asian handicap was at home [-0.5/-1] 1.92. Although Tigastrup failed to win the first game, the market still gave strong concessions, showing that institutions are extremely prepared for a rebound at home. At the same time, the baseline of goal size is directly up to 3.5 goals, and the flood (1.82) is in the low payout range, which strongly implies that the offensive rhythm of this game will be very open.
3. Result prediction and configuration logic:
Based on the home team's implied winning rate of more than half and the absolute crushing of historical encounters, the home team's winning direction can be used as a solid foundation. In terms of the specific executable handicap, the Asian handicap [-0.5/-1] is chosen as the core configuration (win one goal to guarantee half win, win two goals to get full), which is extremely cost-effective. Taking into account the instability of the youth team's defense and the deep market expectation of 3.5, the second choice [3.5] is large. As a total goal hedge, the home team is expected to smoothly break through the concession with a score of 3-1.
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