Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.0%
Secondary
Market
27.6%
Certus
31.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.6%
Result
Market
28.9%
Certus
32.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.5%
Settled
Italian Cup · 2026-08-18 02:45
· Certus
Cremonese vs SampdoriaCremonese vs Sampdoria
Predicted1-1
Actual2-0
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap home and away and away [+1]
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryGuest[+1]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Venue variables eliminate home field advantage
According to the latest information, major changes have occurred in the first round of the 2026-27 Italian Cup. Due to the poor condition of the turf at Cremona's home stadium (Stadio Giovanni Zini), the game was forced to be moved to a neutral venue in Bolzano. This means that Cremona has essentially lost its home field advantage, and the market's implied home win price of 43.5% seems slightly less supportive in a neutral environment.
2. First game of the season and physical fitness retention
Both sides currently belong to Serie B teams, and the 2026-27 Serie B season only officially started in late August. This cup match is the first official game of the new season for the two armies. When the lineup is not fully integrated and the players' competitive status has not yet reached its peak, the smoothness of the offensive end is bound to be greatly reduced; at the same time, in order to prepare for the upcoming league, both sides also have a certain degree of rotation and retention risks.
3. Handicap pricing and strategy convergence
Market goal size [2.5] In the handicap, the price was significantly lowered to 1.65, showing that the data side is extremely vigilant against this "neutral ground boring battle". Since the Jockey Club did not offer any Asian Handicap for this event, we were unable to forcefully choose a direction in the gray zone due to the lack of a draw defense mechanism. Therefore, follow the direction of market defense and lock the core configuration at the [2.5] detail with a higher degree of certainty; as a secondary option, you can use the handicap home and away and (HAD) away [+1] to capture the opportunity for Sandorlia to remain unbeaten in regular time.
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