← Back to strategy list

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Primary

Market 65.7%

Certus 70.0%

+4.3%

Secondary

Market —

Certus 40.0%

—

Result

Market 32.0%

Certus 35.2%

+3.2%

Settled

Argentine Division 1 · 2026-08-18 08:28 · Certus

Gimnasia Mendoza vs Talleres Gimnasia Mendoza vs Talleres

Predicted 1-0

Actual 3-1

Core Configuration [2.5] Fine, Secondary Choice Handicap Primary [0] to build water defense

Primary [2.5] Under Secondary main[0] Result Home Goals O/U [2.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

2.76

Market implied 36.2%

Draw

2.68

Market implied 37.3%

Away win

2.52

Market implied 39.7%

半場主客和

Home win

3.65

Market implied 27.4%

Draw

1.74

Market implied 57.5%

Away win

3.4

Market implied 29.4%

半場入球大細

[0.5/1]

Over

1.88

Market implied 53.2%

Under

1.82

Market implied 54.9%

[1/1.5]

Over

3.2

Market implied 31.2%

Under

1.29

Market implied 77.5%

[1.5]

Over

3.8

Market implied 26.3%

Under

1.21

Market implied 82.6%

入球大細

[1.5]

Over

1.53

Market implied 65.4%

Under

2.33

Market implied 42.9%

[1.5/2]

Over

1.7

Market implied 58.8%

Under

2.02

Market implied 49.5%

[2.5]

Over

2.68

Market implied 37.3%

Under

1.4

Market implied 71.4%

球隊入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

1.47

Market implied 68.0%

主 [0.5] 細

2.48

Market implied 40.3%

主 [1.5] 大

3.35

Market implied 29.9%

主 [1.5] 細

1.27

Market implied 78.7%

客 [0.5] 大

1.42

Market implied 70.4%

客 [0.5] 細

2.62

Market implied 38.2%

客 [1.5] 大

3.15

Market implied 31.7%

客 [1.5] 細

1.3

Market implied 76.9%

球隊半場入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

2.62

Market implied 38.2%

主 [0.5] 細

1.42

Market implied 70.4%

主 [1.5] 大

9.5

Market implied 10.5%

主 [1.5] 細

1.02

Market implied 98.0%

客 [0.5] 大

2.5

Market implied 40.0%

客 [0.5] 細

1.46

Market implied 68.5%

客 [1.5] 大

8.5

Market implied 11.8%

客 [1.5] 細

1.03

Market implied 97.1%

讓球

主[0]

1.97

Market implied 50.8%

客[0]

1.8

Market implied 55.6%

讓球主客和

主[+1]

1.4

Market implied 71.4%

和[+1]

3.85

Market implied 26.0%

客[-1]

5.9

Market implied 16.9%

主[-1]

6.6

Market implied 15.2%

和[-1]

4.1

Market implied 24.4%

客[+1]

1.34

Market implied 74.6%

半場讓球

主[0]

1.92

Market implied 52.1%

客[0]

1.78

Market implied 56.2%

波膽

Home

1:0

5.7

2:0

11.0

2:1

9.75

3:0

30.0

3:1

29.0

3:2

40.0

4:0

80.0

4:1

70.0

4:2

125.0

5:0

400.0

5:1

300.0

5:2

500.0

Draw

0:0

5.3

1:1

5.4

2:2

16.0

3:3

80.0

Away

0:1

5.6

0:2

10.0

1:2

9.25

0:3

27.0

1:3

27.0

2:3

40.0

0:4

70.0

1:4

70.0

2:4

125.0

0:5

300.0

1:5

300.0

2:5

500.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

4.85

2:0

12.5

2:1

35.0

3:0

80.0

3:1

150.0

3:2

600.0

4:0

600.0

4:1

800.0

4:2

2000.0

5:0

3000.0

5:1

5000.0

5:2

5000.0

Draw

0:0

1.91

1:1

7.25

2:2

100.0

3:3

2000.0

Away

0:1

4.3

0:2

11.0

1:2

30.0

0:3

80.0

1:3

150.0

2:3

600.0

0:4

500.0

1:4

800.0

2:4

2000.0

0:5

2000.0

1:5

4000.0

2:5

5000.0

半全場

主-主

4.7

Market implied 21.3%

主-和

14.5

Market implied 6.9%

主-客

30.0

Market implied 3.3%

和-主

5.8

Market implied 17.2%

和-和

3.45

Market implied 29.0%

和-客

5.4

Market implied 18.5%

客-主

35.0

Market implied 2.9%

客-和

14.5

Market implied 6.9%

客-客

4.25

Market implied 23.5%

總入球

0球

5.3

Market implied 18.9%

1球

3.3

Market implied 30.3%

2球

3.15

Market implied 31.7%

3球

4.25

Market implied 23.5%

4球

7.25

Market implied 13.8%

5球

16.0

Market implied 6.2%

6球

30.0

Market implied 3.3%

7+球

50.0

Market implied 2.0%

入球單雙

單

1.92

Market implied 52.1%

雙

1.78

Market implied 56.2%

第一隊入球

主

2.16

Market implied 46.3%

無

5.3

Market implied 18.9%

客

2.04

Market implied 49.0%

Recent form

Gimnasia Mendoza

L W L W

Talleres

L W L L

2026-08-12 拉魯斯 0-3
2026-08-04 CA普拉坦斯 0-4
2026-07-31 沙士菲 1-3
2026-07-26 紐維爾舊生 1-0

Other matches same day

Team dossier

Talleres

View league profile →

Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Certus %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

In-depth analysis

This game is the fifth round of the 2026 Argentine League A second stage (Clausura), with Ganas Avendosa playing against Tenanes at home. According to cross-validation of online data, although the visiting team Tynanese performed well in the first stage (ranked 4th), after entering the second stage, it fell into a clear ebb under the leadership of coach Jorge Sampaoli. It suffered 3 losses in the last 4 games, and was defeated 0-3 by Lanus in the last round. There was a disconnect on both offense and defense. On the other hand, the home team Canas Aventusa currently has 2 wins, 2 losses and 6 points in 4 games, and the top scorer Agustín Módica (17 goals in all competitions this season) has certain finishing ability at home.

From the perspective of market pricing, the home win rate is 2.76, the draw rate is 2.68, and the away win rate is 2.52, showing an extremely anxious "three-line balance", with an implied probability of a draw as high as 33%; at the same time, the price of the 2.5-goal goal area has been reduced to 1.40. With the recent state of both teams fluctuating and the visiting team's offensive end suffering serious setbacks, it is not appropriate to blindly force the direction of victory. According to the system decision tree, strategically, [2.5] Thin must be used as the core configuration with the highest confidence to prevent the risk of a draw; and in terms of directional assistance, in view of the recent downturn of the away team, choosing Handicap Main [0] in the list to establish a draw defense is the second choice configuration with an excellent risk-benefit ratio.

Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Gimnasia Mendoza vs Talleres Gimnasia Mendoza vs Talleres

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

半場入球大細

入球大細

球隊入球大細

球隊半場入球大細

讓球

讓球主客和

半場讓球

波膽

半場波膽

半全場

總入球

入球單雙

第一隊入球

Recent form

Team dossier