Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.2%
Secondary
Market
85.6%
Certus
70.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-15.4%
Result
Market
85.6%
Certus
70.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-15.4%
Settled
Saudi King's Cup · 2026-08-18 00:00
· Certus
Al Anwar vs Al Ahli JeddahAl Anwar vs Al Ahli Jeddah
Predicted0-4
Actual1-2
核心配置 [3.5] 大,次選讓球主客和 客[-3]
Primary[3.5] Over✗SecondaryAway[-3]✗ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is the top 32 match of the Saudi King's Cup in the 2026-27 season. The low-level team Al-Anwar Club will face the top giants of the Saudi Professional League Al Ahli Saudi at home. According to the latest information in August 2026, Jeddah Al Ali got off to a great start in the first game of the new season (ranked 7th in the league). The team has former stars from the five major European leagues such as Ivan Toney, Galeno, Trinchão and Édouard Mendy. The gap between the hard power of the two teams and the value of the lineup is extremely large.
At the tactical level, although Jeddah Al Ali as a visiting team may undergo a certain degree of lineup rotation in the early stages of the cup, its bench depth is still absolutely suppressive for lower-level teams. Ai Anhua is expected to adopt an intensive defense strategy of retreating the entire army, but with the opponent's strong personal ability and impact from both wings, it will be extremely difficult to keep the entire field open.
In terms of market implicit pricing, the customer win probability is as high as 85.6% (market pricing 1.04), leaving no room for value. In the absence of the Asian Handicap defense and the deep handicap home and away (HAD) without water leakage protection, the first choice target in this game should be the size of the goal. The system mandates that cup matches strictly prohibit high-line thin sets as the core configuration. Considering the strong offensive firepower of the away team, [3.5] Big (self-rated 63%) is the best choice to take into account both winning rate and return. For the second choice, you can focus on the home and away handicap [-3], and be optimistic that the away team will win by at least 4 goals and penetrate the deep plate.
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