Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
34.2%
Certus
34.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.3%
Settled
Emperor's Cup · 2026-08-19 18:00
· Certus
Gainare Tottori vs Roasso KumamotoGainare Tottori vs Roasso Kumamoto
Predicted0-1
Actual1-1
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap away [0]
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
✓
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactical and Fundamental Analysis:
This is the first round clash of Japan's Emperor's Cup. Both teams are currently competing in the J3 league (Kumamoto Royce was relegated last season). Entering the 2026-27 new season, Kumamoto Royce lost 0-0 to its opponents in the first two league rounds, showing strong defensive discipline, but its frontline scoring ability was obviously weak. The opponent Tottori Flying had a dismal start, conceding 5 goals in two games (including a 0-4 defeat to Ehime FC), and the lineup was facing a serious wave of injuries. Main forward Ibuki Yoshida and defender Shunto Onai were both out for a long time due to Achilles tendon rupture. Midfielder Jun Katori was also troubled by injuries, and their offensive and defensive capabilities were greatly reduced.
Pricing and Handicap Error:
The market's implicit pricing gives the home player a 35.3% chance of winning and the away player a 34.2% chance of winning. The handicap shows five to five waves. Taking into account the risk of large-scale rotation in the cup and the loopholes in Tottori Flying's defense, the pricing of the main victory here has a certain meaning of inducement. At the same time, the market pricing of the small number of goals scored in this game [2.5] are as low as 1.52, which shows that the organization is highly guarded against boring results with low goals.
Executable Configuration:
When the confidence level in the direction of winning or losing is low (<45%) and the risk of a tie exceeds 30%, the red line of the system's "grey zone defense" is strictly triggered, and it is prohibited to blindly use the sum of host and guest as the core. Considering Kumamoto's extreme defensive data and Tottori's weak offensive power, the [2.5] detail in the configuration list is the core asset with the highest confidence in this game. In the second option, you can configure the Asian Handicap Guest[0], which can perfectly hedge the risk of 0-0 by using a tie handicap, and at the same time capture Kumamoto's small victory opportunity by taking advantage of the loopholes in Tottori's defense to counterattack the guest.
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