Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Orbis
21.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
79.4%
Orbis
80.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.6%
Settled
Scottish League Cup · 2026-07-22 02:45
· Orbis
St. Mirren vs East KilbrideSt. Mirren vs East Kilbride
Predicted3-0
Actual4-3
A high probability of a home win is the core setup, combined with a 3.5-goal reinforcement on defense.
PrimaryHome✓SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Orbis probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Orbis %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
