Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Secondary
Market
—
Codex
35.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
85.3%
Codex
72.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-13.0%
Settled
Australia Cup · 2026-07-22 17:30
· Codex
Tiger FC vs Western Sydney WanderersTiger FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Predicted0-4
Actual0-2
Core setup: Away [-3], Secondary Half Away [-1.5]
PrimaryGuest[-3]—SecondaryAway[-1.5]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[4.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Codex probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Codex %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
深度分析
戰術與階層差距：
本場澳洲盃為典型的「澳職聯（A-League）職業隊 vs 首都領地NPL（Capital Football）半職業隊」降維對決。西悉尼流浪者在整體戰術素養、個人能力、對抗強度與90分鐘高強度逼搶體能上均具備絕對優勢。老虎FC作為半職業球隊，防線在面對職業級攻防轉換節奏時，極易於下半場出現體能瓶頸與防守結構脫節。
