Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Codex
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
25.6%
Codex
29.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.0%
Settled
Australia Cup · 2026-07-22 17:30
· Codex
Sydney Utd vs Sailors on the central bankSydney Utd vs Sailors on the central bank
Predicted2-2
Actual1-1
Core configuration [2.5] large, secondary choice main [0]
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultDraw✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Codex probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Codex %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
深度分析
1. 級別差與體能週期錯位
悉尼聯（Sydney United 58）隸屬於 NPL NSW（新南威爾斯州超級聯賽），目前正值聯賽賽季中段，球員對賽節奏與戰術配合均處於年度峰值。反觀澳職聯（A-League）強權中岸水手，正值季前備戰期，澳洲盃早期賽事往往被用作新陣容磨合與替補測試，整體比賽強度與體能儲備尚未達到聯賽巔峰。
