Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.2%
Secondary
Market
55.6%
Lexis
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.4%
Result
Market
56.9%
Lexis
52.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.2%
Settled
Australian NPL - Victoria · 2026-07-25 13:00
· Lexis
Melbourne City B vs AvondaleMelbourne City B vs Avondale
Predicted1-2
Actual2-3
Core setup is Away Win, paired with [3.5] Fine as double insurance defense
PrimaryAway✓Secondary[3.5] Under✗ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Lexis probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Lexis %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
