Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.0%
Secondary
Market
69.9%
Aestus
59.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-10.2%
Result
Market
69.9%
Aestus
59.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-10.2%
Settled
Argentine Division 1 · 2026-07-26 06:13
· Aestus
River Plate vs Barracas CentralRiver Plate vs Barracas Central
Predicted2-0
Actual0-1
Core lineup [2.5] Detailed, second pick home win echoes River Plate's 2:0 clean sheet prediction
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryHome✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
