Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.6%
Secondary
Market
56.4%
Aestus
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.6%
Result
Market
55.1%
Aestus
48.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.6%
Settled
Scottish League Cup · 2026-07-26 22:00
· Aestus
St. Mirren vs DunfermlineSt. Mirren vs Dunfermline
Predicted2-1
Actual0-1
Core setup is home win, secondary choice [3.5] Detailed Echoes control of the game and low score prediction
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Level gap and offensive and defensive positioning: This game is the Scottish League Cup group stage. The Scottish Premiership team St. Meiren plays at home against the Scottish Championship team Dunfermline. There is a clear league level gap between the two teams, with St. Meiren dominating in terms of overall lineup depth, intensity of confrontation, and rhythm of passing and controlling.
Handicap Structure and Market Attitude: The market price is 1.60 for St. Meiren to win at home, and the implied winning rate after removing the water is about 55.1%, which reasonably reflects the strong position of the home court across levels. The baseline for goal size is set at 3.5 goals, but the low (thin) market pricing are as low as 1.64 (and the high area is as high as 2.12), and the top three favorites are 2:1, 1:1 and 1:0, indicating that funds are cautious about high-scoring wins and prefer a game in which the total number of goals is controlled within 3 goals.
Tactical deduction and configuration logic: The cup stage is often accompanied by moderate lineup rotation. Dunfermline is expected to adopt low defense and counterattack tactics. Although St. Mellon can take the initiative, the high-pressure defense efficiency may not lead to a big victory. Therefore, the direction of the game results takes Main Victory as the first core, supplemented by [3.5] Fine as the secondary defense.
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