Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.1%
Secondary
Market
52.2%
Aestus
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.8%
Result
Market
40.1%
Aestus
42.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.1%
Settled
USL Championship · 2026-07-26 09:00
· Aestus
Colorado Springs Switchbacks vs Charleston BatteryColorado Springs Switchbacks vs Charleston Battery
Predicted2-1
Actual2-1
Core setup is home win, second pick [2.5] high, echoing the high goals conversion prediction
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
