Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.9%
Secondary
Market
57.4%
Aestus
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.6%
Result
Market
62.5%
Aestus
57.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.9%
Settled
Mexican Premier · 2026-07-27 09:00
· Aestus
Pachuca vs QueretaroPachuca vs Queretaro
Predicted2-1
Actual1-2
Core setup is home win, second pick [2.5] big, echoing high score predictions
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Home Plateau and Tactical Suppression: Pachuca has always had the ability to press at a very high pace and pass from side to side at its home stadium, Estadio Hidalgo (approximately 2,400 meters above sea level). When Queretaro visited a high-altitude away game, the physical energy consumption in the second half was significant. Facing Pachuca's high press, it was easy to make mistakes in the backcourt.
Market Pricing and Model Edge: The market currently gives a main win of 1.41 (implied winning rate after de-extracting is about 62.5%), an Asian handicap of 1.86 [-1], and a large and small ball threshold of 2.5 goals (high ball area 1.61). The model's independent combat power evaluation shows that Pachuca's main victory probability reaches 68.0%. Compared with the market, which has a positive edge of about 5.5%, it meets the main victory configuration threshold.
Goal prediction and match results: Querétaro’s defense is weak in away pressure and cannot stop Pachuca’s multi-point success; however, it still has certain sneak attack capabilities in counterattacks and set pieces. It is expected that Pachuca will be able to control the situation and break the deadlock in the first half. In the second half, the two sides gain physical strength and attack and defend each other. The final score points to 2:1, and the total number of goals crosses the 2.5-goal line.
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