Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.6%
Secondary
Market
43.7%
Aestus
44.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.6%
Result
Market
43.7%
Aestus
44.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.6%
Settled
Mexican Premier · 2026-07-27 07:00
· Aestus
Necaxa vs MonterreyNecaxa vs Monterrey
Predicted1-2
Actual2-1
Top pick is [2.5] over, second pick away win, model predicts score 1:2
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryAway✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and lineup comparison:
As the top power in the Mexican Super League, Monterrey's overall lineup value and third-line depth are both better than Nicasha's. Monterrey has a lot of offensive creativity and high-pressure capabilities in the frontcourt; while Nikasha is prone to loopholes in the defensive line and set-piece defense when facing pressure from strong teams, but its home court has a certain ability to counterattack and score goals.
Data and market pricing estimates:
The current market gives an implicit support of 2.02 for Monterrey's away win (about 43.7% after deducting water). At the same time, the goal size is [2.5], and the "big" high zone is priced as low as 1.61, reflecting the market's strong expectations for more goals in this game. Combined with the high popularity of the top three teams (1:1, 1:2, 0:1), the visiting team has a higher chance of controlling the rhythm and scoring a high score in this game. Therefore, the strategy configuration uses [2.5] Big as the core primary choice, and Customer Win as the directional secondary choice.
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