Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.2%
Secondary
Market
—
Aestus
25.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
38.9%
Aestus
38.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.9%
Settled
Brazilian Division 2 · 2026-07-27 03:00
· Aestus
Sao Bernardo vs CearaSao Bernardo vs Ceara
Predicted1-0
Actual3-4
The preferred setup is [2.5] fine, followed by the main [0] to prevent a draw
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
✗
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and event layout:
Extremely low ball pricing orientation: The Brazilian League B has a strong defensive tug-of-war feature. The market has given an extremely low price of 1.45 on the 2.5-goal baseline (the high-goal zone reaches 2.55), implying a high degree of market consensus that this game will fall into a dull tug-of-war.
The high probability of a draw and the difference between victory and defeat: After removing the margin, the market implied probability is: 38.9% for home win, 31.5% for draw, and 29.6% for away win. Under the condition that the probability of a draw exceeds 28% and the main victory does not reach 52%, the three directions of victory and defeat are risky, and it is not appropriate to directly adopt the one-win direction as the core configuration.
Risk Control and Defensive Assets: Due to search restrictions on rankings and lineup real-time information, this game uses market anchored mode (market_anchored). The core configuration anchors the low score attribute ([2.5] thin), and is paired with the Asian handicap tie handicap (main[0]) for draw hedging.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.
