Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.4%
Secondary
Market
53.4%
Aestus
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.6%
Result
Market
57.5%
Aestus
54.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.4%
Settled
Women US Football League · 2026-07-27 05:00
· Aestus
San Diego Wave Women vs Seattle Reign WomenSan Diego Wave Women vs Seattle Reign Women
Predicted2-1
Actual0-2
Core setup for home win, second pick [2.5] big, echoing offensive firepower and score prediction
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Over✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Tactical pattern and formation confrontation
Home Team (San Diego Wave Women's Football Team): The home team's high-position press and side breakthroughs are extremely efficient. The frontcourt pressure can effectively block the visiting team's progress in the midfield. The transition between offense and defense at home is smooth and can create more high-quality scoring opportunities.
Away team (Seattle Queens Women's Football Team): Recent away tactics tend to shrink the defense and wait for opportunities to counterattack. However, when faced with high-intensity pressing, the backline consumes physical energy quickly and is prone to handing over possession of the ball in the midfield and backcourt.
2. Market pricing and data premium calibration
Winning and Losing Direction: The latest market pricing is for a win of $1.52$ (the implied winning rate after removing the margin is about $57.5\%$). After the model's combat power evaluation, the home team's home winning probability is about $63\%$, which has a positive value (Edge $> 5\%$), and the main winning direction is recognized.
Goal size: The baseline for big and small goals is $2.5$, and the low zone for big goals is priced at $1.73$, showing market popularity. Considering the stable firepower of the home team and the sneak attack ability of the away team's defensive counterattack, the probability of 3 or more goals in the game is relatively high, and the score structure is locked at $2:1$ or $2:0$.
3. On-the-spot asset allocation strategy
Core Configuration: Take Main Victory as the first priority asset.
Auxiliary configuration: Match the whole game [2.5] Big As a hedging and income amplification asset, the overall tactical chain remains consistent.
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