Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.5%
Secondary
Market
54.7%
Aestus
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.3%
Result
Market
58.3%
Aestus
54.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.5%
Settled
Women US Football League · 2026-07-27 09:00
· Aestus
Angel City Women vs Louisville Racing Women's SoccerAngel City Women vs Louisville Racing Women's Soccer
Predicted2-1
Actual1-2
Core lineup is home win, second pick [2.5] Big Supports the home team's offensive dominance
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
✓
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The Louisville Contest Women's Soccer Team (NWSL) represents Louisville, Kentucky and competes in the Women's National League starting in 2021 at Lynn Family Stadium.
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and lineup dynamics
This game is a regular league of the National Women's Professional League (NWSL). The Angel City Women's Football Team will face the Louisville Competition Women's Football Team at home. The Angel City women's football team relies on wing advancement and high-position pressing at home, and has better offensive dominance; the Louisville women's football team's away strategy is relatively narrow, trying to seek breakthroughs through quick counterattacks after midfield interceptions.
Market Pricing and Premium Calibration
The latest only-win pricing in the market is 1.50 for the main win, 3.85 for the draw, and 4.60 for the away win. After removing the margin, the market implied probability of the main win is 58.3%. The baseline of goal size is set at 2.5 goals (high area 1.69 / low area 2.04), and the market remains biased towards the goals produced by the two teams. In the bold list, 1:0, 2:1 and 2:0 are all at the top of the implicit ranking. The comprehensive analysis of the model estimates that the probability of winning is about 64%, which has a marginal advantage; the score prediction is locked at 2:1, which is in the same line and direction as the goal size [2.5].
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