Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.4%
Secondary
Market
55.1%
Aestus
52.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.4%
Result
Market
55.1%
Aestus
52.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.4%
Settled
Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-07-28 04:00
· Aestus
Cote d'Ivoire Women vs Burkina Faso women's national football teamCote d'Ivoire Women vs Burkina Faso women's national football team
Predicted1-0
Actual4-1
Core slot [2.5] Small, second pick is home win, expecting Ivory Coast Women to win 1-0 narrowly
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This Women's Africa Cup of Nations clash pits the Côte d'Ivoire women's football team against the Burkina Faso women's football team. Observing from the market pricing and tactical disk, the agency gave a basic discount of 1.6 for the main win (the winning rate after deducting is about 55.1%), but the low zone pricing of the goal size baseline [2.5] is as low as 1.66 (the implied probability of low goal is about 56.2%), which shows that the market has extremely low expectations for a high score in this game.
Tactical pattern and strength gap: The Ivory Coast women's football team has a slight advantage in overall ball control and personal skills. However, in the cup group stage, facing the possible intensive defense of the Burkina Faso women's football team, the offensive end's ability to break the low defense is still tested.
Offensive and defensive rhythm and pricing bias: The half-time home-away and tie market pricing are as low as 2.1, and the top three high-frequency items (1:0, 2:0, 1:1) all point to low scores, which indicates that the rhythm of the two teams will be quite cautious in the first half, and the game is likely to be slow-heated and hand-to-hand.
Risk Control and Allocation Strategy: In view of the risk of cup rotation and incomplete data fields, the Top1 allocation weight is set to 35%. After comprehensive evaluation, the Ivory Coast women's football team has the ability to win narrowly. The first choice is [2.5] fine with high confidence, and the second choice is main victory.
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