Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.6%
Secondary
Market
43.6%
Aestus
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+18.4%
Result
Market
77.0%
Aestus
67.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.6%
Settled
Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-07-28 01:00
· Aestus
South Africa Women vs Tanzania women's national football teamSouth Africa Women vs Tanzania women's national football team
Predicted2-0
Actual1-2
Core setup is home win, second pick [2.5] Small, echoing a low score prediction of 2:0
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Under✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Strength Pattern
In the Women's Africa Cup of Nations, the South African women's football team (Banyana Banyana), as Africa's top team, is significantly better than the Tanzania women's football team in terms of personal ability, offensive and defensive transition rhythm, and competition experience. The South African women's football team focuses on pass control, suppression and side blasting. Facing the Tanzania women's football team, which has a relatively weak overall defense level, it is expected to control the majority of the ball possession rate and the number of shots. The Tanzania women's football team is expected to adopt an extreme low defense (swinging bus) strategy to try to reduce the space for conceding goals in the penalty area.
Market Pricing and Risk Assessment
The latest implied probability in the market shows that the main victory is 77.0% (equivalent to a win loss of 1.14), and market funds have a high consensus on the South African women's football team's single win. However, in the handicap, the main [-2] market pricing are as high as 2.70, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards whether the South African women's football team can achieve a big victory over the handicap. Taking into account the risk of physical distribution and lineup rotation in the cup stage, after gaining a two-goal lead, the South African women's football team will most likely switch to a ball-control consumption mode and may not go all out to hit high scores.
tactical configuration logic
Core Configuration: Main Win (weight 65%). The difference in strength between the two sides is clear, and the South African women's football team's single win is extremely stable as the cornerstone of the overall configuration.
Second choice configuration: [2.5] Fine (weight 35%). Limited by the opponent's reduced defense and the tactical control of the field after taking the lead in the cup, the total number of goals is estimated to be 2 goals, and the score is expected to be [2.5].
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