Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-12.5%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
75.0%
Ordo
62.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-12.5%
Settled
Copa Sudamericana · 2026-07-29 08:30
· Ordo
Santos vs Central University of VenezuelaSantos vs Central University of Venezuela
Predicted2-0
Actual4-2
Core setup for home win, second pick home [-1.5/2]
PrimaryHome✓SecondaryHome[-1.5/2]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Level Gap and Fundamental Positioning: This game is the 2026 South American Football Club Cup. The Brazilian giant Santos will face the Central University of Venezuela at home. There is a significant level difference between the two teams in terms of team value, overall tactical quality and experience in cross-border competitions. Santos has an overall advantage.
Market Pricing and Goal Expectation: The market gives Santos a home win of 1.17 (implied winning rate of about 75.0% after removing the margin), which is a highly confident unilateral handicap. However, the [3.5] ball is priced at only 1.51 in the large and small low area, and the market pricing are highly concentrated at 2:0 (5.7) and 1:0 (6.8), which shows that the market believes that the away team lacks the ability to counterattack, and the rhythm of the game will be dominated by Santos, with the overall bias towards a mid-to-low score pattern.
Cup Risks and Configuration Logic: Due to the characteristics of the cup, Santos may conduct tactical lineup rotations, and the Central University of Venezuela is expected to adopt an extremely low defense in the away game, with a limited upper limit for penetration. Therefore, the main win is the most certain asset in the game, and the second choice is combined with the handicap as an income expansion.
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