Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
49.5%
Ordo
44.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.2%
Settled
Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-07-30 04:00
· Ordo
Cameroon Women vs Mali women's national football teamCameroon Women vs Mali women's national football team
Predicted1-0
Actual2-1
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Event Attributes: This game is the focus of the Women's African Cup of Nations (WAFCON). The overall rhythm of the Women's Football Cup matches is cautious, and both teams will give priority to building a solid defense during the elimination and competition stages. Cameroon's women's football team has a slight advantage in competition experience and physical confrontation, but Mali's women's football team has strong defensive resilience and is good at defensive counterattacks.
Market Pricing and Gray Area Filtering: The latest de-extraction implied probability in the market shows that the main win is about 49.5% (1.77 for one-way win), which falls exactly within the 42%–52% gray area threshold. In the case of a cup with high variables and a high probability of a draw (26.5%), the win-lose direction lacks a sufficient margin of safety.
Asset Allocation Logic: Based on the low xG tendency of the cup and the gray area filtering rule, it is most suitable for this game to use the [2.5] Fine with the highest degree of certainty as the core asset (Primary); the second choice is to use Handle Master[0]. If the two sides draw, the principal can be refunded to achieve a stable leakage defense.
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