Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-12.0%
Secondary
Market
59.3%
Ordo
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.7%
Result
Market
72.4%
Ordo
60.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-12.0%
Settled
Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-07-30 01:00
· Ordo
Ghana Women vs Cape Verde women's national football teamGhana Women vs Cape Verde women's national football team
Predicted3-0
Actual2-0
Core setup for handicap home/away and 'Home[-1]', with the secondary pick '[2.5] High'
PrimaryMain[-1]—Secondary[2.5] Over✗ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Tactical strength and confrontation level
As a traditional strong team in West Africa, the Ghana women's football team has significantly higher overall physical confrontation, midfield conversion efficiency and wing impact than the Cape Verde women's football team. The Cape Verde women's football team mostly uses a low-post contraction defensive strategy during the cup stage. However, under high-intensity and high-position pressing, the stability of the defensive ball is poor, and the risk of defensive mistakes is high.
2. Market Pricing and Data Structure
The implied probability of the market's main win reaches 72.4% (main win 1.21), showing a clear level gap. The baseline for goal size is set at 2.5 goals, and the high zone (big goal) is priced as low as 1.56, reflecting the strong market preference for the Ghanaian women's football team to dominate the offense and produce multiple goals. Handicap home and away and "Home[-1]" (market pricing 1.77) offer a relatively reasonable risk-benefit ratio.
3. Fighting spirit and prediction of results
In the critical period of cup group and elimination, the Ghana women's football team has a clear motivation to dominate the rhythm of the game. Although the Cape Verde women's football team will put up a deep defense, it will be difficult to compete with the Ghana women's football team's multi-point attack. It is estimated that the Ghana women's football team can win with a difference of 2 goals or more, and the estimated score is 3:0.
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