Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
53.5%
Ordo
46.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.1%
Settled
Brazilian Division 1 · 2026-07-30 08:30
· Ordo
Fluminense vs BahiaFluminense vs Bahia
Predicted1-0
Actual0-0
Core configuration [2.5] is fine, with the secondary main [0] for ledge and water flow defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactical Structure and Pricing Assessment
In this Brazilian Serie A match, Fuminnis will face Bahia at home. Judging from the latest implicit pricing in the market, the home win rate is 1.65 (with a margin-free winning rate of about 53.5%), reflecting the market’s moderate recognition of Fuminnis’ home court control. However, judging from the top three high probability rankings in the wave bile market - respectively 1:0 (6.1), 1:1 (6.4) and 2:1 (7.0) - the market highly expects that the score will be extremely tight, and the probability boundary between a draw and a small win is quite blurry.
On-site data and configuration considerations
Fuminnis has strong ball control and pressure at home, but Bahia's defensive system has strong counterattack resistance. The baseline of goal size is set at 2.5 goals, and the pricing in the high and low zones is quite balanced (large goal 1.86 / small goal 1.84), indicating that the overall efficiency of the two teams in tearing apart the opponent's defense is low. After comprehensive evaluation, the steering wheel port is highly affected by draw incentives, and the number of goals closed is a more stable asset direction. Therefore, [2.5] Fine is listed as the core configuration, and the second choice is paired with Main[0] for water leakage defense.
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