Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.2%
Secondary
Market
50.0%
Ordo
56.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.0%
Result
Market
56.8%
Ordo
50.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.2%
Settled
Brazilian Division 1 · 2026-07-30 06:30
· Ordo
Mirassol vs Clube do RemoMirassol vs Clube do Remo
Predicted2-0
Actual2-1
Core setup is home win, second pick [2.5] narrow, model predicts Mirasso to win steadily 2:0.
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[2.5] Under✗ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and lineup layout
Mirasso has excellent ball control and positional siege abilities at home, with smooth transitions from midfield to backcourt, and is good at using the width of the court to tear apart the opponent's defense; Remo's away game strategy is expected to favor low defense and active contraction, and the formation will mostly maintain a compact 4-5-1 or 5-3-2, trying to slow down the pace of the game with intensive defense in the middle and seek counterattacks.
Market Pricing and Data Verification
The market opened Mirasol's home win at 1.55, with an implied winning rate of about 56.8%, showing that the market has a clear tendency for the home team to take all three points. The baseline for the total number of goals falls at 2.5 goals (the level of the high and low levels is 1.85), and the top three market pricing are 1:0, 2:0 and 1:1, reflecting that the market is extremely optimistic about the low score in this game.
Comprehensive assessment of combat power
There is little doubt that Mirasol will dominate the game, but Remo's intensive defense may delay the home team's scoring time, and the rhythm of the game tends to be a controlled and boring game. All things considered, the home team has a high probability of breaking the game, and the total number of goals scored is likely to be capped at 2 goals.
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