Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Aestus
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
43.0%
Aestus
40.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.9%
Settled
Brazilian Division 1 · 2026-07-27 06:30
· Aestus
Clube do Remo vs VitoriaClube do Remo vs Vitoria
Predicted1-0
Actual2-0
Core configuration [2.5] Fine, secondary pick handicap Main [0] Defense against draw risk
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Brazilian Serie A match, Remo will face Victoria at home. From the analysis of data science and market pricing model, the current market gives three market pricing: home win 2.05, draw 3.15, and away win 3.05. After removing the margin, the implied probability of a home win is 43.0%, the probability of a draw is 28.0%, and the probability of an away win is 28.9%.
Tactics and handicap structure points:
Red line warning of overheated draw: The probability of a draw is as high as 28.0%, and the main win (43.0%) does not reach the 52% strong direction threshold. This means that the strength of the two teams is balanced and it is easy to fall into a midfield fight. The risk of winning three games alone is high.
Low score pricing is significant: The water level of the low zone (thin ball) of the goal size 2.5 is opened at 1.76, and the implied order of the top three in the frequency range is 1:1, 1:0, and 2:1 respectively. The market is strongly optimistic about the low score result. Tactically, both teams focus on solid defense, and the offensive and defensive rhythm is expected to be slow.
Risk control allocation strategy: Comprehensive consideration of the uncertainty of the winning and losing direction and the trend of low scores, the first choice is the [2.5] fine with advantages in pricing and probability; in the winning and losing direction, configure Main[0] (Asian handicap tie handicap) as a capital-preserving defense to prevent the risk of a 1:1 handshake.
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