Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.4%
Secondary
Market
53.4%
Aestus
56.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.6%
Result
Market
64.4%
Aestus
59.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.4%
Settled
Brazilian Division 1 · 2026-07-27 05:30
· Aestus
Flamengo vs Sao PauloFlamengo vs Sao Paulo
Predicted2-1
Actual1-1
The core positioning is Francis Mingo's "home win," supplemented by [2.5] over-ball assets, with an expected score of 2-1.
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Over✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Brazilian Serie A match, Farmingo will face Sao Paulo at home. Judging from the latest pricing in the market, the main winning market pricing are as low as 1.37, and the implied winning rate after removing the margin is as high as 64.4%, showing significant one-way support. Farmingo relies on Marajiana's strong aura and frontcourt attacking lineup at home, and has strong home control; Sao Paulo's performance in the away game is relatively conservative, and the formation is mainly defensive and counterattack in the middle and low positions.
According to data analysis, the 2.5-goal baseline high zone price is 1.73, and the wave bile market is most popular at 2:0 (6.1), 1:0 (6.0) and 2:1 (6.9), reflecting the market's high confidence in Falin Minggao scoring more than 2 goals. At the tactical level, Falimengao's high pressure will be dominant, and Sao Paulo's defense will inevitably have loopholes under the away pressure. Based on the comprehensive strength model, it is expected that Falimengao can control the rhythm of the game, and the estimated score is 2-1.
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