Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.7%
Secondary
Market
47.8%
Aestus
56.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.2%
Result
Market
54.8%
Aestus
47.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.7%
Settled
Brazilian Division 1 · 2026-07-27 03:00
· Aestus
Cruzeiro vs BotafogoCruzeiro vs Botafogo
Predicted1-0
Actual0-1
Core setup is home win, second pick [2.5] Careful to guard against low-score formations
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Under✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
tactics and market structure analysis
In this Brazilian Serie A match, Coats Road will face Bodihuagao at home. According to the latest market structured pricing, the home win market pricing are 1.61, and the implied home win probability after removing the water is 54.8%. The market gives the home team ample home concession support. The top three favorites are 1:0, 1:1 and 2:1, which shows that the market has a considerable consensus on the small ball pattern and the undefeated home team.
Combat power calibration and risk control tips
Due to the limitations of real-time lineup injuries and the latest league points data, this game uses the market anchoring mode (market_anchored) for configuration control:
Winning and Losing Direction: Coats Road has excellent home control, and the overall probability distribution is significantly biased towards the home team. Home victory is the direction with the clearest marginal benefit at present.
Trend of goals scored: The high area (large) of the big and thin ball 2.5 ball line is 1.77, and the low area (thin) is 1.93. In line with Bozuo's prediction of a high probability of 0:0 at halftime, it is expected that the early stage of the game will be dominated by defensive tug-of-war, and the total number of goals scored in the game is more likely to fall in the 1-2 goal range.
Comprehensive tactical trends and market probabilities, the asset allocation is based on Main Victory as the first choice, and paired with [2.5] Fine as a defensive cover.
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