Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.1%
Secondary
Market
50.5%
Aestus
57.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.5%
Result
Market
59.6%
Aestus
55.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.1%
Settled
Brazilian Division 1 · 2026-07-27 05:30
· Aestus
RB Bragantino vs CoritibaRB Bragantino vs Coritiba
Predicted2-0
Actual0-0
Core allocation is home win, second pick [2.5] Under, in line with low market pricing expected in the correct score market
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Under✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Through cross-validation and evaluation of the latest Brazilian League A match data for the 2026 season:
Fundamentals and Ranking: As of the end of July 2026 (the first 19 rounds), Barragantino Red Bull ranks fifth in the league with 30 points, and is in the core competition circle for qualification for the South American Liberty Cup; Corediba temporarily ranks 10th with 26 points. The point difference between the two teams is only 4 points, which is a direct dialogue between the middle and upper reaches.
Injury and recent situation: Barragantino Red Bulls drew 1-1 with Fuminis in the last round, but the team's main right back Agustín Sant'Anna and defensive midfielder Fabinho both got red and will be suspended for this game. This has a certain impact on the home team's right defense and midfield interception hardness; Corediba lost 1-3 at home in the last round Losing to the powerful enemy Pomelas, morale was dampened and the defense line was exposed to many hidden dangers.
Market Pricing and Premium Assessment: The on-the-spot structured market gives a home win of 1.48 (implied probability of about 59.6%), which still gives strong support to Red Bull playing at home. The highest implied probabilities in the market are concentrated at 1:0 and 2:0. Combined with the possible slowdown and stabilization strategies brought about by the reorganization of Red Bull's midfield and backcourt, it is expected that the rhythm of the game will be controlled by the home team and the total number of goals will be low. The model calculates that the real winning rate of the main victory is about 65% (with a 5.4% premium advantage). It is recommended to determine the main victory in the right way and use [2.5] details as the secondary configuration.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.
