Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
44.4%
Ordo
40.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.6%
Settled
CONCACAF U20 Championship · 2026-07-30 09:00
· Ordo
Canada U20 vs Honduras U20Canada U20 vs Honduras U20
Predicted1-0
Actual1-1
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this U20 CONCACAF Championship match between Canada U20 and Honduras U20, the market pricing shows the typical "grey zone balance of power" characteristics:
Win and Loss Pricing Bias: Canada U20 home win market pricing are 1.99 (implied probability of about 44.4%), falling in the gray area of 42%–52%. In youth-level competitions, a win rate of around 44% is not enough to support the forced acquisition of three wins and losses (result/handicap_had) as the first choice asset.
The wave line is aligned with the total goal line: The top three wave line favorites are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1, and the price of the 2.5-goal low area (fine) is 1.84, showing that market funds are cautious about high-scoring attacks.
Tactical configuration considerations: Both teams focused on steady testing in the group stage, and the defensive system mostly maintained low settlement in the early stages of the game. Taking into account the large fluctuations in the direction of victory and defeat, using the [2.5] fine with the highest degree of certainty as the core configuration, and using the Handicap (Asian Handicap) Main [0] as the defensive asset for draw refunds and losses, is the most objective and robust on-the-spot strategy.
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