Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.8%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
40.3%
Ordo
38.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.3%
Settled
Women US Football League · 2026-07-30 09:00
· Ordo
Utah Royals Women vs Washington Spirit WomenUtah Royals Women vs Washington Spirit Women
Predicted1-2
Actual0-1
Core configuration [2.5] large, secondary pick [0] water flow defense
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Women's National League (NWSL) game, the Utah Royals women's soccer team will face the Washington Spirit women's soccer team at home.
Win-loss pricing and gray zone differences: The latest implied probability in the market shows that the away win is 40.3% (market pricing 2.17), the home win is 33.6% (2.60), and the draw is 26.1% (3.35). The option with the highest winning rate does not reach the 42% confidence threshold, indicating that the two teams are extremely close in terms of fighting strength and that the market has significant differences in the direction of victory and defeat.
Goal Expectation and Asset Conversion: The baseline for goal size is set at 2.5 goals (1.77 for large goals, 1.93 for small goals). With the comprehensive deduction of the popular wave numbers (1:1, 0:1, 1:2), the game has the conditions for open confrontation and scoring at both ends. When the risk of the steering wheel port is high, the [2.5] Big with a higher probability will be used as the core configuration (primary).
Defense Mechanism: The second choice uses the Asian handicap off[0], which is based on the prediction that the Washington Spirit Women's Football Team will have a slight advantage, and provides a defensive guarantee for the result of a draw.
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