Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.3%
Secondary
Market
64.2%
Ordo
54.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.4%
Result
Market
64.2%
Ordo
54.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.4%
Settled
Women US Football League · 2026-07-30 10:00
· Ordo
Bay FC Women vs NJNY Gotham WomenBay FC Women vs NJNY Gotham Women
Predicted1-2
Actual0-1
Core configuration [2.5] large, second pick away win
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryAway✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Combat Strength Assessment: As the top team in the Women's National Professional League (NWSL), NJ/NY Gotham FC's lineup depth and offensive firepower are significantly better than the new Bay FC Women's Football Team (Bay FC). When faced with high-intensity and high-pressure pressing, the Gulf FC Women's Football Team's defense has a high turnover rate and limited ability to withstand pressure on the defensive end.
Market Pricing and Handicap Interpretation: The latest implicit pricing in the market is 1.36 for customer wins. After deducting the margin, the probability of customer wins is as high as 64.2%, showing the market’s high confidence in the victory of Gotham Women’s Football Team. At the same time, the baseline of goal size is set at 2.5 goals, and the price of the low area of the big goal is only 1.63 (implied probability of about 61.3%), showing the market’s strong expectation for a high score in the offensive and defensive confrontation between the two teams.
Results and Configuration Suggestions: Gotham Women's Football Team is expected to dominate the tempo of the away game, and Gulf FC's defensive transition may not be able to block the visiting team's frontcourt offensive; however, Gulf FC also has a certain ability to counterattack and score goals at home. After comprehensive evaluation, the confidence of a high score in the entire game is the highest, and the predicted score is 1:2.
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