Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.7%
Secondary
Market
56.4%
Ordo
49.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.2%
Result
Market
56.4%
Ordo
49.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.2%
Settled
Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-07-31 01:00
· Ordo
Senegal Women's Football Team vs Kenya Women's Football TeamSenegal Women's Football Team vs Kenya Women's Football Team
Predicted2-0
Actual1-0
Core setup [2.5] Thin, second pick home win
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Match Situation:
This match is the 2026 Women's African Cup of Nations (cup_women), between the Senegalese women's football team and the Kenyan women's football team. The nature of the cup determines that both sides will tend to be cautious in offensive and defensive arrangements, especially at key points in the group stage or knockout rounds. Reducing mistakes and maintaining a defensive structure takes precedence over blind attacks.
Data and Market Pricing Analysis:
Winning and Loss Pricing and Probability: The latest home and away market pricing in the market are 1.56 | 3.45 | 4.85. After removing the margin, the implied probability of home victory is about 56.4%, which shows that the Senegalese women’s football team has a certain dominance in terms of overall lineup depth and competition experience.
Total goal high and low area indicators: Under the 2.5 goal baseline, the market pricing for the low area (thin) are as low as 1.70, and the market pricing for the high area (large) are as high as 2.02. The market's top three favorites are 1:0 (5.6), 2:0 (6.4) and 1:1 (6.6), which highly supports the trend of a tight rhythm and a controlled number of goals.
Asset Allocation Logic: Taking into account the stalemate nature of the cup and the market's high tilt towards low scores, a total goal count of less than 2.5 has a higher certainty of success. Therefore, [2.5] Fine is used as the core execution asset, and Main Win is used as the second choice to enhance the overall income.
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